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Why Do the Cryptocurrency Prices Go Down on the Weekends?

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Why Do the Cryptocurrency Prices Go Down on the Weekends

If you have been in the crypto world for a while, you may have noticed the typical behavior of the market during weekends. With some exceptions, we are used to seeing the price of significant cryptocurrencies drop over the weekend.

The phenomenon is known to those who operate in this market, but understanding the causes is rather complex. Therefore, this article will discuss a definitive answer by analyzing the main factors in this market trend.

Do we have a definitive answer?

The short answer is “No!”. But unfortunately, we have yet to precisely have a definitive answer to why cryptocurrencies tend to see price declines over the weekend. Instead, the current situation appears to depend on at least two factors:

  • It’s a young market: the market youth of cryptocurrencies will have to deal with for several years. While Bitcoin came around more than ten years ago, the current rate of new cryptocurrencies appearing on exchanges is unprecedented. BTC, ETH, and other coins quickly dominated the sector for years. Therefore, investing in this market is unlike operating in a mature industry such as Forex.
  • It may be wrong to look for a unique reason: it is tempting to claim that crypto prices fall on weekends for one specific reason. However, the reality is far more complicated. In the real world, many factors combine to create financial market reactions.

Keeping these premises in mind, the following sections will discuss several likely reasons behind this interesting phenomenon.

The role of banks

First, we should talk about the role of banks in this market equilibrium. While swap operations are certainly growing in popularity, more and more crypto exchanges allow the use of fiat currencies.

This may signal that some investors prefer buying cryptocurrencies with fiat money rather than using other coins. 

Since fiat money is generally stored in banks, most banking institutions are not operative during the weekend may play a part in this game.

An indirect confirmation of this theory appears to come from the typical rebound of crypto prices on Sunday nights (U.S. time) when Asian banks open.

Margin trading

Those traders who use a margin to operate on financial markets may also have a substantial weight in the strange behavior of cryptocurrencies during the weekend. If you are not familiar with margin trading, here is what usually happens when your investments’ value decreases under this speculative technique:

  • suppose there is an event leading to a decrease in the price of cryptocurrencies (say, the fact that banks are closed on the weekend, as previously mentioned);
  • you have a margin-long position, which suddenly needs to be covered to avoid being automatically closed at a loss;
  • the market calls this operation a margin call, and, to prevent it, investors may decide to be bearish on a token, covering their loss;
  • crypto prices will move even lower, starting the loop from the beginning;

This system can only be broken when the market becomes bullish again on a coin. And, once again, this cycle appears to break when Asian banks open on Monday morning.

Is there room for market manipulation?

In a poorly regulated market, price manipulation is a real issue. So yes, this may happen. From time to time, the market is hit by reports aiming to prove how few whale investors artificially move the crypto market.

Therefore, we cannot exclude a similar (and even recurrent) manipulation during the weekend. For example, suppose anyone decides to target a particular cryptocurrency with selling orders, pushing its market quote down. 

Anyone who can control the machine can easily make the right call when the prices lower, opening long positions with high and easy profits.

This is yet another hint that a little more regulation would not hurt the crypto market, and many retail investors could fall victim to such a scheme.

Investment funds

Exchanged Traded Funds (or ETFs) may also play a relevant part in the declining crypto prices we observe on the weekend. ETFs generally have lower or no trading activity during the weekend, a factor that may dramatically push investment volumes from Friday to Sunday night.

As previously mentioned, lower volumes lead to a higher market-moving power for each trade, resulting in increased price volatility.

This is hazardous since many ETF investors may be forced to record significant losses when investment firms reopen on Monday morning.

A psychological factor

We should remember one of the hardest (and most significant) factors to measure: market psychology. A popular financial theory claims that if investors think something will happen on the market, they will eventually be right.

These “self-fulfilling prophecies,” as academics call them, maybe another massive force playing on the crypto market during the weekend:

  • assume everyone thinks, by looking at the past, the crypto prices will go down on Sunday morning;
  • consequently, investors will bet on the collapse of the market;
  • while doing so, they will sell coins at a high rate, actually leading to the need to move lower;
  • at this point, other factors, such as a margin call, direct to the previously described loop.

What can we conclude on the matter?

Anyone claiming that there is only one reason why crypto prices collapse during the weekend risks oversimplifying reality. Just like many other things in the real world, financial market processes are more challenging than they may appear in the eyes of an inexperienced trader needing crypto guides.

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We know cryptocurrency trading volumes and prices tend to decline over the weekend. So while the potential explanations we included in our analysis are far from being definitive, they may provide some food for thought.

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Born in Italy, Gianluca is a finance and data specialist, coming from an academic education at Sorbonne University in Paris and a career as Senior Advisor at Ernst & Young in the Banking and Blockchain sector.

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